If 2025 taught the ETF industry anything, it is that growth is no longer moving in straight lines.
At the start of the year, global ETF assets were expected to grow steadily, but predictably. Instead, the industry once again exceeded forecasts, with assets surpassing US$17 trillion well before year-end, driven by relentless inflows and accelerating adoption across regions and investor types.
As we look ahead to 2026, the question will be whether the market’s infrastructure, standards and operating models can keep pace.
Standardisation moves from aspiration to action
For years, the ETF industry has talked about the need for standardisation in the primary market. In 2025, that conversation finally became tangible.
Across issuers, authorised participants, asset servicers and technology providers, momentum is building around common definitions for creation and redemption workflows. The work underway within the FIX community is particularly significant. Rather than fragmented, proprietary processes, the industry is now actively collaborating on shared standards that allow participants to interact using their own systems, but in a consistent way.
This shift matters because scale demands consistency. As volumes continue to rise, bespoke workflows and manual exceptions simply do not scale. In 2026, standardisation will move from a competitive nice-to-have to a baseline expectation.
Growth brings complexity – and complexity raises the stakes
ETF growth is no longer just about more assets; it is about more types of assets.
Active ETFs, semi-transparent strategies, complex fixed income baskets, derivative-based products and mutual fund conversions are now mainstream. Each brings additional operational considerations, particularly in the primary market, where servicing models were originally designed for simpler products and far lower volumes.
As ETF strategies become more sophisticated, the cost of operational friction rises. Without automation and real-time visibility, complexity quickly translates into risk, higher hedging costs and reduced liquidity. In 2026, managing complexity efficiently will be a defining differentiator for the industry.
A broader servicing ecosystem raises standards
Another notable trend is the widening pool of ETF service providers.
ETF servicing is no longer the exclusive domain of a small number of global custodian banks. New entrants, specialist providers and technology-led firms are increasingly active, bringing greater choice – and greater competition – to the market.
This diversification is healthy. It reduces concentration risk and encourages innovation. But it also raises expectations. As choice increases, issuers and authorised participants will expect higher levels of automation, transparency and consistency across providers. In 2026, competition will increasingly be fought on operating model quality, not just balance sheet strength.
2026: the industry’s preparation year for Europe’s move to T+1
While Europe’s transition to T+1 settlement is scheduled for 2027, 2026 will be the year the industry truly feels the pressure.
The US experience showed that T+1 can work, but only with extensive preparation, testing and automation. Europe’s market structure is more complex, more fragmented and more cross-border. That makes early readiness essential.
Throughout 2026, firms will be stress-testing workflows, tightening cut-offs and re-examining how information flows across the ETF lifecycle. For the primary market in particular, the ability to deliver timely confirmations and real-time status updates will move from efficiency gain to operational necessity.
The secondary market steps into focus
Alongside primary market reform, 2026 will also see increased attention on the ETF secondary market, particularly in the UK.
Today, ETFs are often traded like equities on retail platforms, leading to high per-trade costs and limited support for regular investment. By contrast, markets such as Germany have demonstrated the power of ETF savings plans, where orders are aggregated, costs are minimised and retail participation scales rapidly.
Solutions that allow platforms to treat ETFs more like mutual funds – aggregating orders, enabling fractional investment and fulfilling trades efficiently – have the potential to remove long-standing barriers to entry. As cost and accessibility improve, 2026 could mark a turning point for UK retail ETF adoption.
Active giants arrive and access broadens
Another defining theme heading into 2026 is the continued arrival of large, established active managers into the ETF market.
Firms that once resisted the wrapper are now re-packaging flagship strategies as ETFs, responding to client demand for transparency, liquidity and cost efficiency. As more active giants prepare ETF launches in 2026, competition will intensify and expectations around servicing sophistication will rise further.
At the same time, policymakers across Europe are pushing to broaden retail participation through tax-advantaged accounts and simpler cross-border investment frameworks. Combined, these forces point to a larger, more diverse investor base entering the ETF market.
A brief word on wrapper convergence
Finally, 2025 offered early signs of wrapper convergence, from tokenised ETFs to investment trusts and hedge funds exploring the ETF structure.
While still nascent, these developments reinforce a broader point: ETFs are increasingly seen not just as products, but as a more efficient investment technology. In 2026, experimentation will continue, but always against the same backdrop – infrastructure must be robust before innovation can scale.
Looking ahead
The ETF industry enters 2026 in a position of extraordinary strength. Growth is broad-based, innovation is accelerating and collaboration around standards is finally gaining traction.
But success will hinge on execution. As volumes rise and complexity deepens, automation, standardisation and real-time connectivity will define which markets – and which participants – are best positioned for the next phase of growth.
If 2025 showed us anything, it is that the ETF market has a habit of outgrowing expectations. 2026 will be about making sure the industry is ready when it does so again.
